Erick opens on President Trump's Dallas convention promise of a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to every adult citizen if Republicans hold the House and Senate, and calls it what it is: a bribe funded by the tariffs listeners are already paying, with JD Vance out on Fox News defending it. His counteroffer is zero income tax for married couples with kids earning under $200,000, money people keep instead of money the government prints and hands back. Then the real story of the hour, the Republican midterm message of common sense versus crazy, as James Talarico scrambles to walk back six genders and a non-binary God, Abdul El-Sayed runs from his 9/11 problem, John Fetterman cuts an ad for Dave McCormick, and a new Tony Fabrizio poll shows Talarico beating Ken Paxton in Texas by four.

• Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas, the never-delivered $5,000 DOGE check, and why Erick calls it bribery and "unicorn farts"
• JD Vance on Brett Baier defending tariffs as the funding source, and Erick's rebuttal that American workers pay tariffs through flat wages and higher prices on beef, coffee and bananas
• The better plan: zero income tax on married couples with children under $200,000 instead of a Biden-style $2,000 COVID check that reignites inflation
• Common sense versus crazy: James Talarico backpedaling on SB 14, transgender surgeries for minors and "God is non-binary," plus his Charlie Kirk dodge
• Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed and the 9/11 attack line in Michigan, John Fetterman's ad for Dave McCormick, Jake Tapper on tied Senate races, and the Fabrizio poll red flag with Talarico up four on Ken Paxton

Erick opens with the hard economic numbers Republicans keep trying to spin past: the Atlanta Fed says a household now needs $124,674 a year to afford a median priced home against a median income just over $80,000, wholesale prices rose 0.4 percent in August with the producer price index running 5.4 percent annually, diesel surged 24.1 percent, and West Texas crude sits above $101 a barrel with Brent at $106. His argument is that President Trump should stop spinning and level with people, because Iran is deliberately wrecking the American economy to elect weak Democrats and win a nuclear weapon. Then the story of the hour: Erick walks through the case that Jacob Coxon's dramatic resignation from Anthropic after six weeks is not organic at all, but a funded operation to regulate American AI into oblivion.

• The Atlanta Fed housing math, the August producer price index, 24.1 percent diesel, oil over $100 a barrel, and why the Federal Reserve interest rate decision next week still points to a hike
• Trump's claim that the war ends immediately after the election, and Erick's case that Iran is holding the American economy hostage to install Democrats who will let them go nuclear
• Erick's frustration with the tariffs and the Canada trade war, and his pitch to blame Joe Biden's economy while running on common sense versus crazy
• The Jacob Coxon story: six weeks at Anthropic, a Wall Street Journal exclusive, a Twitter post 18 minutes later with 149 million views, and Anderson Cooper and Brett Baier interviews demanding an international body to control AI
• Following the money, from Extinction Rebellion and Newspeak to Jan Tallinn, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, Encode AI, the AI Policy Network, the AI Futures Project, Dustin Moskovitz and Bernie Sanders' bill to ban artificial superintelligence, with Elon Musk, Dylan Loomis and Parker Thayer questioning whether any of it is organic

Erick opens the final hour on Eva Moskowitz's Washington Post op-ed and the Success Academy lawsuit against New York education commissioner Betty Rosa, filed after the state blocked US News and World Report from reporting aggregate AP exam results, dropping one Success Academy high school from 11th in New York to 196th overnight. Then the news of the hour: the United Kingdom has formally requested the extradition of Andrew and Tristan Tate on 59 charges, including 15 counts of rape, and Erick names the right wing influencers who elevated them anyway. He closes on the eve of the 25th anniversary of September 11 with George W. Bush at Ground Zero, the 537 votes in Florida, the USA Today recount that would have cost Bush the presidency under his own hanging chad standard, and a hard argument about Islam, Charlie Hebdo, and the post liberal right.

• Eva Moskowitz, Success Academy charter schools and the federal lawsuit against Betty Rosa over New York hiding AP exam data, plus regents exams curved down to 29 of 82 raw points
• Teachers unions, whole word reading versus phonics as a revenue play, Mississippi outperforming California and New York, and the Georgia speaker pushing the Mississippi plan
• School choice, Bibb County school closings decided by race instead of academics, and Erick's defense of good teachers stuck babysitting kids the state forces through the door
• The United Kingdom's extradition request for Andrew and Tristan Tate, 42 charges against Andrew and 17 against Tristan, and the Candace Owens and Tucker Carlson wing that promoted them
• The 25th anniversary of September 11, George W. Bush's bullhorn moment and Yankee Stadium pitch, Bush versus Al Gore and the 537 votes, Saxby Chambliss beating Max Cleland, and why Erick says Islam as practiced is incompatible with Western free speech
• The post liberal right, Patrick Deneen, JD Vance's advisers, and Erick's case that attacking classical liberalism is socialism with a church pew

Erick opens the midterm stretch run by dismantling the Republican panic over Senate polling, using Patrick Ruffini's study of 3,312 polls showing Democrats are overstated by an average of 3.7 points, with the high water mark landing right at Labor Day. Then, as the Republican convention opens on the week of the 25th anniversary of 9/11, he argues the GOP should embrace the nationalized election and run on it, pointing to the Great Lakes PAC ad hitting Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate race. Plus Trump's Presidential Medal of Freedom for the Man in the Red Bandana, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declaring "I am the house now."

• Patrick Ruffini's polling error data: Democrats overstated 3.7 points on average, 73 percent of polls, peaking at 5.9 in late July
• The 2020 echo: Lindsey Graham, Steve Bullock, Cal Cunningham, Roger Marshall, John Cornyn, Joni Ernst, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and every panic that fizzled
• Race by race averages in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, with Ken Paxton and Michael Whatley the real trouble spots
• 9/11 at 25: Erick's daughter Evelyn on remembrance versus a macabre idol, TSA opening gate access again, and the Man in the Red Bandana Medal of Freedom
• Mike Rogers versus Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the Great Lakes PAC ad, and Erick's case for nationalizing the election on 9/11
• Scott Bessent at SMU: "I am the house now," the yen intervention, and the tripled Treasury buyback of 10 and 20 year notes

The GOP convention puts Trump at the center of the midterm fight as Treasury yields add pressure to the housing market.
A deadly Miami cargo-plane crash raises questions about landing procedures, while Iran threatens a wider war.

The September 9 edition of 4 Things covers the Republican convention in Dallas and the debate over whether a Trump-centered message can bring disaffected Republicans back to the polls. Rising 10-year Treasury yields following a $6 billion buyback also put mortgage rates, housing affordability, and the national debt in focus.

In Miami, the discussion centers on preliminary information about the landing of an Amazon-branded cargo plane. Questions about the crew's actions and the aircraft's braking systems remain subject to the NTSB investigation. A final determination of the cause is still pending.

Iran's stated threat to escalate the conflict raises concerns about additional targets across the Middle East. Economic pressure, oil restrictions, and the potential responses of the United States and Israel are central to the discussion.

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Stay grounded, stay informed, and keep the faith

Erick opens hour two with survivors calling in on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, including Robert, who was on the 101st floor of the South Tower, and Greg, who listened over a squawk box as Cantor Fitzgerald went silent. Then he tears into the Trump administration's trade war of choice with Canada and the move to ban Bombardier jets, warning it puts Roger Marshall in Kansas, Susan Collins in Maine and Mike Rogers in Michigan at real risk two months before the election. He closes with a nuanced defense of Flock cameras paired with a hard line on facial recognition, and a blistering take on Anthropic researchers publicly claiming AI could kill humanity.

• Callers Robert and Greg on surviving 9/11, Aon's 176 dead, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, and a generation of kids with no memory of the world before
• Zohran-style progressives who say America deserved 9/11: Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the "hurt people hurt people" line, and Erick's case for nationalizing the midterms on 9/11
• The Canada trade war: the Bombardier ban, 2,000 Kansas jobs, Howard Lutnick sabotaging a done deal, Jamieson Greer, oil over $100 a barrel and the Dow down 300
• Flock cameras defended and limited: no right to privacy in your license plate, but ban facial recognition in the public right of way and ban proactive alerts, with WSB TV's Brookhaven case of a family ticketed over stale insurance data
• Anthropic's Evan Hubinger and a departing researcher saying AI could kill all humans, and why Erick is not buying it: "I read the end of the book"

Erick opens hour three with the Wall Street Journal story on why returning online orders got hard, Lane Bryant restocking fees, shortened Macy's and Home Depot return windows, McDonald's killing free refills, and argues none of it is corporate penny pinching. It is what a low trust society looks like when a post Christian America abandons the ethics that made cheap trust possible. He then takes a caller on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, and delivers his sharpest attack yet on the JD Vance welfare proposal, calling it a plan to turn stay at home moms into welfare queens, before objecting to the Attorney General speaking at the Republican convention in Dallas.

• The Wall Street Journal on return fees: Lane Bryant, Zara, H&M, Uniqlo, TJ Maxx, Macy's cut from a year to 30 days, Home Depot's seven day window, and 68 percent of retailers now charging
• Why the low trust society explains it all: shoplifting, locked up razor blades at Target, dashcams, drivers in the left lane, Roman lawsuits as spectator sport, and Ross Douthat's post Christian right
• Caller Kathleen in Jacksonville on the 9/11 25th anniversary, never forget, and Erick on his daughter's question about where remembering ends and idolatry begins
• JD Vance and the Trump administration draft rule extending child care welfare to married couples: the $9,000 per child benefit, the $75,000 benefit cliff, and why dad cannot take the promotion and mom cannot take the part time job
• The Republican convention in Dallas: Erick's objection to the Attorney General and cabinet secretaries speaking at a partisan convention, plus LIV Golf filing Chapter 11

1. Michigan Replay Dispute
The Mid-American Conference says replay officials used the wrong clock to restore one second against Western Michigan. According to the statement read in the episode, the MAC is seeking recognition of Western Michigan as the winner for ranking and selection purposes.

2. Nike's Business Challenges
Nike is set to leave the S&P 100 following a steep decline in market value. Its turnaround faces questions about wholesale relationships, its direct-to-consumer strategy, and competition from Hoka and On.

3. Bombardier Sales Threat Draws Kansas Response
President Donald Trump's threat to bar Bombardier aircraft sales unless the company manufactures planes in the United States has prompted Kansas Republicans to voice support for its local workforce. 

4. Houthi Attacks Escalate Regional Tensions
Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and shipping are raising concerns about oil exports, Red Sea security, and further escalation. 

Text ERICK to 33-777 for "Show Notes" and to stay updated on all things Erick Erickson.

www.erickerickson.com

https://www.youtube.com/@ewerickson 

https://rumble.com/ewerickson 

Stay grounded, stay informed, and keep the faith.

The post Labor Day panic has arrived, and Erick Erickson says the bad news is actually good news. He walks through the Real Clear Politics generic ballot average, Donald Trump's 36 to 39 percent approval, the two point Democratic polling bias, and the Senate map from Ken Paxton in Texas to Susan Collins in Maine, Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Mike Collins in Georgia. His verdict: Republicans probably lose seats, but there is no blue tsunami coming, and the billion dollars Trump is finally spending changes the math.

• Why Democrats always peak in summer polling, and why the averages settle after Labor Day
• Trump approval at 36 percent, the Iran war drag, and the AI worry numbers from Steve Kornacki
• Ken Paxton, the $10 million Texas rescue ad, and the Republican convention nobody may watch
• Susan Collins in Maine, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Michael Whatley in North Carolina, and national money pulling out of Georgia over Mike Collins
• The DSA conference, "the Democrats must be destroyed," and the GOP's 9/11 twenty fifth anniversary messaging opportunity